Analysis Of Competing Hypotheses Software For Mac
The Applications in the GoExplore Software Suite: Are written in Visual Basic.NET (Managed Code). Run on PC’s with the Windows Operating System (Microsoft Vista or a more recent version of Windows). To run the programs on a Mac you can use a window emulator like ‘Parallels Desktop 15 for Mac’. A software companion to a 30+ year-old CIA research methodology, Open Source Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) will help you think objectively and logically about overwhelming amounts of data and hypotheses. It can also guide research teams toward more productive discussions by identifying the exact points of contention.
PrintDC Sniper Case: Example Hypothesis and Evidence Development
Submissions Instructions: Expand upon (add to or change) the example hypotheses and evidence. Post your analysis to the Lesson 5 Discussion Forum. Hp 8470p network controller driver.
Purpose: To complete the ACH steps of hypothesis generation and evidence development.
General. Jdbc driver for oracle 11g express edition free download. Analysis of Competing Hypotheses, ACH, is a simple model for how to think about and fuse geospatial information into analytic problems. As we have included ACH in our geospatial analytic method, it takes the geospatial analyst through a process to make well-reasoned, analytical judgments using both non-geospatial and geospatial information. It is particularly useful for predictions of what is likely to happen in the future. It helps an analyst to minimize some of the cognitive limitations we discussed earlier. The key elements of ACH we are going to address in this exercise are:
- Identify the possible hypotheses to be considered. Use a group of analysts with different perspectives to brainstorm the possibilities.
- Make a list of evidence and arguments for and against each hypothesis.
According to Heuer, a hypothesis is a testable proposition about what is true, or about what has happened, is happening, or will happen. It should usually be worded as a positive statement that can be disproved. The most effective hypotheses meet two tests. (1) The hypotheses are mutually exclusive. That means if one hypothesis is true, then all other hypotheses must be false - in other words, no overlap between hypotheses. (2) The hypotheses cover all reasonable possibilities, including those that seem unlikely but not impossible. As evidence is collected and added to the matrix, you may find that hypotheses need to be reworded, added, deleted, or combined.
Again, according to Heuer, when identifying relevant evidence, consider each hypothesis, one at a time, and ask yourself: What evidence would I expect to see if this hypothesis is true? Also, what evidence would I expect not to see if this hypothesis is true? You will generally find that each hypothesis leads you to seek out somewhat different evidence. Evaluation of all reasonable hypotheses may require that you explore hypotheses you have not seriously considered before. To appreciate the geospatial aspects of the problem, it will be necessary to map the data!
What to do: Expand upon (add, delete, or modify information) the following hypothesis and evidence lists developed from the DC Sniper Case study:
- Initial hypotheses:
- Disgruntled Michael's employee
- Foreign terrorist
- Serial killer
- Domestic terrorist
- Initial evidence:
- Conforms to the geospatial model of a serial criminal.
- The majority of the shootings were at or near shopping centers. That is, the events are not near governmental buildings indicating that government is not a target.
- Shootings were all on major highways or interstates for a quick exit from the scene. This indicates a desire not to be caught.
- There was only one shooting per location and often occurred at gas stations. This seems to indicate our Sniper is not in the role of a suicide terrorist.
- Sighting of a blue car with two black men.
- Sighting of a white van with two individuals at one killing.
- Military caliber weapon (5.56mm). This caliber is common to the US military and is also a sporting cartridge.
- Noise heard but shooter never seen. This possibly indicates some sniper training.
ACH : Learn how to think when it comes to complex problems and use this program to conduct the analysis of competing hypotheses together with some more tools
The Internet is filled with all sort of nice applications that you can check out and that could help you analyze all sort of data. One of such applications is ACH. Analysis of Competing Hypotheses breaks a complex problem down into its component parts.The program comes with multiple nice features and tools that you can check out, as well as some samples and instructions.
Visually-appealing and lightweight interface
The application doesn't take long to install and it doesn't come with a complicated setup that you would need to complete before you can actually use it. It sports lots of nice tools and features, all neatly arranged under an intuitive graphical interface.Analysis of Competing Hypotheses is a simple model for how to think about a complex problem. It takes you through a process for making a well-reasoned, analytical judgment.It is particularly useful for issues that require careful weighing of alternative explanations of what has happened, is happening, or is likely to happen in the future.Analyze hypotheses and data
ACH is grounded in basic insights from cognitive psychology, decision analysis, and the scientific method. It helps analysts protect themselves from avoidable error and improve their chances of making right calls.This software provides a structured process for breaking a complex analytical problem down into its component parts - a full set of hypotheses (i.e., alternative explanations or outcomes), evidence and arguments that are useful in assessing these hypotheses, and judgments about the consistency or inconsistency of each item of evidence with each hypothesis.More features and tools
This software does not tell you which hypothesis is best. It takes you through a structured thought process that helps you find the best available answer on your own. This thought process differs significantly from how most people normally think.It lets you enter evidence, create a project, establish the classification, write notes, set the credibility and relevance of hypotheses. You can use it to accurately calculate the weighted inconsistency score for your intelligence analysis.All in all, ACH is a must-have piece of software for intelligence analysis who need to calculate the most probable outcome of an event or hypotheses.
Conclusion
To conclude ACH works on Windows operating system and can be easily downloaded using the below download link according to LGPL license. ACH download file is only 2 MB in size.ACH was filed under the Science and Engineering category and was reviewed in softlookup.com and receive 3.6/5 Score.
ACH has been tested by our team against viruses, spyware, adware, trojan, backdoors and was found to be 100% clean. We will recheck ACH when updated to assure that it remains clean.
ACH user Review
Please review ACH application and submit your comments below. We will collect all comments in an effort to determine whether the ACH software is reliable, perform as expected and deliver the promised features and functionalities.Popularity 7.2/10 - Downloads - 85 - Score - 3.6/5
| Category: | Science and Engineering |
| Publisher: | Palo Alto Research Center |
| Last Updated: | 7/22/2019 |
| Requirements: | Windows 7 64 bit / Windows 7 / Windows Vista 64 bit / Windows Vista / Windows XP 64 bit / Windows XP / Windows 2000 |
| License: | LGPL |
| Operating system: | Windows |
| Hits: | 367 |
| File size: | 2 MB |
| Price: | Not specified |
Analysis Of Competing Hypotheses Software For Macs
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